
Safety 2010 Conference CMS

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Address *	Avenida Augusto Montenegro km 03 s/n Bairro: Mangueiro CEP: 66640-000
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Oral Poster Workshop

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The objective of this work is to identify pointers that make possible the improvement in the management of the process related to the planning and evaluation of registered vehicle fleet in the State of Par, Brazil, and its effects in the road safety and quality of life in the traffic of the State. The basic hypothesis of this work is that the population growth influentiates the fleet growth. Three values were considered for the state fleet between 2000 and 2008, and models: linear, polynomial of third degree and exponential. The fleet was distributed in three groups: cars, trucks and motorcycles, focusing in the cities of Altamira, Breves, and Santarm. The models had presented coefficients of determination above of 90%. The projection of the fleet better present adjustment for the polynomial model of third degree. However, the unusual growth of the motorcycle fleet indicates a strong relation with the exponential model. The investigation showed itself as tool of the management for the public municipal administration and warning sign to the necessity to think about traffic in a systematic way, making possible the identification of problems and necessary interventions with sights to the guarantee and maintenance of a scene of sustainable security.

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